Central bank scanner: Central banks buy time as Hormuz reopens

Central banks have been given some breathing room, meaning most will be on hold at their next meetings, however, that masks the balance of risks facing policymakers.

Global growth is expected to moderate to 3.0 percent in 2026 before rising to 3.3 percent in 2027 from 3.4 percent in 2025 on a purchasing power parity basis. The forecast has been upgraded since May on expectations of lower peak oil prices and resilience in the largest economies. Global inflation is expected to rise more sharply than in our previous forecast, reaching 4.8 percent in 2026 and 4.2 percent in 2027 from 3.8 percent in 2025. Additional pressure on inflation, beyond oil prices an...

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Authors: Benjamin Shoesmith, Brendan Rynne

Published Date: 03 July 2026