Central bank scanner: Central banks winding up rate-cutting cycle

Mounting global debt, inflation nearing a settling point, improved growth outlook and geopolitical risks are expected to keep long-term rates elevated.

Global forecast Global growth is projected to hold at 3.4 percent in 2026 before decelerating to 3.2 percent in 2027. The pace for 2027 would mark the slowest growth rate since the pandemic concluded. Inflation is expected to continue moderating and return to central bank targets. All considered, the global economy weathered the tariff storm better than many feared, in part due to the initial tariffs announced in April being rolled back and an unwillingness by our trading partners to retal...

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Authors: Benjamin Shoesmith, Brendan Rynne

Published Date: 02 March 2026