A cloud of uncertainty shrouds future rate decisions

It could be that the RBA simply does not want to be ‘first mover’ amongst its global peers, and is more comfortable following a ‘last-in, last-out’ rather than a first-in, first-out’ approach to rate setting, writes Brendan Rynne.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the cash rate at 4.35 percent as expected but the crucial question remains - when will it pull the trigger on rate cuts? March’s statement contains an element of ambiguity which makes it too difficult to assess.  The market has been readjusting its expectations on the cash rate pathway – previously anticipating three 25 basis point cuts over the coming 15 months, but now pricing in only two cuts, timed for October 2024 and April 2025. The r...

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Authors: Brendan Rynne

Published Date: 20 March 2024