UK Economic outlook – September 2025

This report looks at the potential impact of increasing global trade frictions, potential tax rises, inflation and interest rates and the implications for UK fiscal and monetary policy.

The prospect of tax rises in the United Kingdom's (UK) Autumn Budget dampens sentiment for both businesses and households. While rising inflation coupled with slowing wage growth could see household incomes squeezed, raising the likelihood of muted consumer spending over the coming quarters. Key takeaways A strong start to the year is expected to make way for a slower pace of growth for the rest of the year, with GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2025 and 1.1 percent in 2026. Elevated global...

Sign in below or register now to read the full article

Authors: Yael Selfin

Published Date: 09 October 2025