US Spring heat wave commences, with prices moving up faster than earnings

The war in Iran is adding to inflation pressures due to tariffs, and more is in the pipeline so inflation will no doubt move higher before we see any signs of cooling, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Dianne Swonk.

The United States' (US) consumer price index (CPI) jumped 0.9 percent in March, the fastest monthly increase since nearing the peak of the pandemic in June 2022. The index jumped 3.3 percent from a year ago, its hottest annual pace since May 2024. The three-month annualised pace, which better tracks momentum, rose 5.6 percent from 3.2 percent in February. Every measure is in the wrong direction for the US Federal Reserve. Those gains still understate actual price hikes due to the data lost...

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Authors: Diane Swonk

Published Date: 15 April 2026