US October retail sales better than first blush

The aggregate data masks underlying stress in low-and-middle-income households, with affluent consumers are driving spending gains, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Ben Shoesmith.

October retail sales came in flat after being revised up to 0.1 percent for September. The outcome fell short of the consensus forecast for a 0.1 percent gain. Excluding autos, retail sales increased by 0.4 percent for the month, topping market expectations but consistent with estimates from credit card companies. Revisions were to the upside, which leaves us in stronger footing entering the quarter. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers plunged 1.6 percent; that was not a surprise, give...

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Authors: Benjamin Shoesmith

Published Date: 18 December 2025