Black Swans flock – US recession risks rise

This edition of Economic Compass, from KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk takes a closer look at the fallout from the most recent round of tariffs.

Black Swan events are defined as consequential but unforeseen and statistically improbable. A sudden change to the global trading system, such as was revealed on 2 April qualifies. The tariffs announced represent the largest tax hike of the modern era. Taken at face value, the effective tariff rate could jump to its highest level since the early 1900s, a period the president has praised. Tariffs made up as much as 95 percent of federal tax revenues, before the first major income taxes in 1...

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Authors: Diane Swonk

Published Date: 14 April 2025