The near 10 percent jump in fuel prices boosted the total for September retail sales, despite people actually cutting back on their fuel purchases, according to inflation-adjusted numbers.
With the fiscal deficit targeted at 3.3 percent of GDP, fiscal sustainability will require economic growth, sustainable revenue collection, expenditure discipline and stronger compliance, rather than higher tax rates alone.
The data centre buildout in the United States and the infrastructure needed to serve it are extremely import-intensive, resulting in a larger trade deficit and higher inventories.
This report examines the impact of persistently higher energy prices on households and businesses, as well as the policy response that may be required from the Bank of England to contain inflationary pressures.
KPMG is expecting the economy will avoid a hard landing, but the path back to stronger, more broad-based growth is likely to be challenging.
The growth in new residential builds during 2025-26 is encouraging, with planning changes and market forces helping direct more investment towards increasing housing supply.
The inflation data shows a stubbornness that requires more drastic policy action, importantly both monetary and fiscal policy working together, in order to bring inflation back down, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Australia’s inflation ‘problem’ is more complicated than just one of those external pressures, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
This webinar, held on 24 September, features timely, practical insights that you can take back to the boardroom.
Markets are betting that the Fed battle takes longer than Chair Warsh implied; they need higher rates to compensate for the loss in purchasing power associated with inflation.
The Fed must restore its credibility, protect purchasing power and convince investors that inflation will return to target; displace the muscle memory now or pay more later, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Pockets of labour shortages are beginning to emerge in the US, notably in the service sector, where inflation is stickiest, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Growth abroad has been hit harder than inside the US by the Iran conflict and tariffs, while the data centre boom continues, as detailed by KPMG US Senior Economist Benjamin Shoesmith.
The data highlights broader concerns about Australia's declining standard of living and long-term economic prosperity, writes KPMG Australia’s Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Warsh offered discipline instead of direction – US inflation is still too high and the labour market solid; the Fed’s credibility will be measured by results, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
We may be in for a long, costly grind to get inflation under control and the Reserve Bank may have missed an opportunity at the last board meeting to get ahead of the game, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Most major central banks are shifting from reacting to inflationary shocks toward assessing its durability; the result is a preference for holding rates steady while messaging hawkish sentiments.
The report points out that China's real GDP grew 4.7 percent year on year in H1 2026, remaining within the Government's 4.5 percent–5.0 percent annual growth target.
Fresh housing finance data analysed by KPMG shows lending activity fell across every major buyer group during the June quarter, as highlighted by KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley.
KPMG’s labour market analysis highlights statistics in the sub-markets that contribute to Australia’s overall unemployment numbers.
The RBA is trying to bring inflation back to target without causing unnecessary damage to the labour market, but ultimately its primary responsibility is price stability, as outlined by KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
KPMG now expects weakness to persist through 2026, with national house values falling by 1.1 percent and national units rising by 2.2 percent.
The persistence of core inflation, during a period where growth is modest and slowing and geopolitical and economic uncertainty is high, will keep the RBA Board awake at night, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Demand for labour in Australia remains strong, with data suggesting employers remain willing to hire despite broader economic uncertainty, as highlighted by Senior Economist Terry Rawnsley.
Heightened uncertainty and high interest rates are limiting big-ticket purchases, especially homes and housing-related items, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Yelena Maleyev.
The dream of homeownership remains alive due to increased owner‑occupiers in Western Australia, Queensland and Victoria, writes KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley.
Cooling momentum, softer rents and easing core pressures argue for patience, especially as demand destruction is doing some of the work, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Most consumers have become more judicious in how they use credit in a world where interest rates and inflation are much higher than they were pre-pandemic, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Benjamin Shoesmith.
Economic activity is expected to remain weak through 2026, with weak consumption acting as the primary drag in line with weak confidence and high interest rates.
Increasing labour force participation amongst experienced older workers could boost GDP by $29 billion, writes KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley.
Central banks have been given some breathing room, meaning most will be on hold at their next meetings, however, that masks the balance of risks facing policymakers.
This report features KPMG’s forecast of the complex commercial property market, highlighting current dynamics across different cities globally.
This webinar, held on Thursday 25 June 2026, features KPMG’s regional Chief Economists, KPMG International’s Global Geopolitics Lead, and other senior advisors to provide business-focused insights on global economic and geopolitical trends.
The deal opens the door to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and while it is a step towards stability, there are still some important unknowns.
The latest CPI data that shows core inflation rising adds to the case for a rate hike, with Australia looking set for incredibly weak growth for the rest of the year.
The challenge is that the post-pandemic rise in inflation is still with us and the Fed is the one institution tasked with ensuring it ends, but it has proven a heavy lift thus far, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
The RBA has been clear and consistent; inflation remains too high in Australia and the current levels of aggregate demand are at least maintaining, or more likely, pushing core inflation even higher, writes KPMG’s Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
KPMG China has released the Q2 edition of the 2026 China Economic Monitor which analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
Inflation continues to move up, with gains spreading more than they had earlier in the year, as it is likely to linger in the wake of resilient demand, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
KPMG analysis of ABS data reveals growing financial pressure is causing lower life satisfaction levels in Australians today than during the pandemic.
The improvement in the labour market, coupled with the stickiness of service sector inflation, has caused hawks to flock at the Federal Reserve, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
KPMG’s latest Australian inflation and cost dynamics report highlights a renewed surge in inflationary pressures, driven by a major global supply shock and persistent domestic cost driver.
This profile suggests a declining annual rate of growth through 2026 such that by the end of the year the economy would have only grown 1.3 percent, writes, KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
What's most concerning is the fact that core inflation remains stubbornly high, ticking up - albeit slightly yet again - despite several successive interest rate rises already this year, writes KPMG Australia’s Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The latest unemployment figures may give the Reserve Bank of Australia some cover to pause next month and take stock, but further rate rises later this year are likely.
The downturn across most major cities hints at a pivotal shift, with long-stalled housing projects finally breaking ground, easing the build-up of homes stuck in the pipeline, writes KPMG Urban Economist Terry Rawnsley.
The result is a jobs number that looks better on paper than it feels to most workers, hence the ongoing anxiety consumers are expressing in consumer attitude surveys, as outlined by KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
The RBA Board is now realising that maintaining credibility in its inflation fight is more important than remaining fixated on full employment, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, the larger the risk that stagflation occurs – a nasty combination of rising inflation, rising unemployment and subdued economic activity, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Ken Kim.
It’s still too early to see the full impact of the Iran war on prices in Australia, with the full picture not likely known until the next quarter at the earliest, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
KPMG’s 2026 Mid-Market Pre-Budget Pulse Check surveyed over 150 mid-market businesses on proposed measures ahead of the Federal Budget.
The long-term effects of disruptions and damages to energy infrastructure are roiling supply chains as well is reshaping behaviours of firms and households, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Benjamin Shoesmith.
Economic growth exceeded expectations in late 2025, though momentum remains fragile and heavily reliant on public demand, with weak private activity, subdued productivity and soft household consumption.
Any price increases being generated within the economy are likely to be passed through to final prices, pushing inflation even higher, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
KPMG China has released the Q1 edition of the 2026 China Economic Monitor which analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
The war in Iran is adding to inflation pressures due to tariffs, and more is in the pipeline so inflation will no doubt move higher before we see any signs of cooling, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Dianne Swonk.
Central banks usually look through supply side shocks, however, the longer the Hormuz Strait closure lasts, the more policymakers will be forced to consider hiking rates to fight inflation.
This webinar, held on Tuesday 31 March, focused on the impact of current geopolitical environment upon economies and business.
What should have been a promising first quarter for consumer spending is more fraught due to the US-Iran war, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Ken Kim.
The potential impacts of the Middle East conflict are already translating to higher oil prices, which are now beginning to have a flow on effect through the entire economy, as detailed by KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The real message is that the Fed is uncertain; there is no preset course for rates up or down at this precarious moment, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
It’s a complex picture facing the RBA and the Federal Government; a weakening labour market at the same time as a supply shock is pushing up inflation, writes KPMG Senior Economist Terry Rawnsley.
Put simply, the inflation genie never quite got back in its bottle, and the RBA is now having another go, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
This edition of the European Economic Outlook explores how Europe’s adoption of AI could reshape jobs and productivity, highlights the outlook for long and short-term interest rates and assesses how easing inflation and consumer caution may shape the continent’s wider economic trajectory.
The conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East presents a range of implications for Australia. It is unclear how long the conflict will continue, so it is important for Australian businesses to consider a wide range of scenarios as they assess the possible impacts.
The US labour market remains a one-legged stool, so much so that when the one sector supporting it suffers a loss, the total slips into the red, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Despite the positive data, we have an economy with a weak private sector, a concerned household sector and a government sector that is crowding out the business sector, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Mounting global debt, inflation nearing a settling point, improved growth outlook and geopolitical risks are expected to keep long-term rates elevated.
The latest inflation data will offer little comfort for Australians right now, particularly with February’s rate hike still fresh in their minds, writes Terry Rawnsley.
The relevance of Prime Minister Takaichi’s historic landslide election won’t lie in any single Japanese policy decision, but in how this shift affects inflation, debt sustainability, and liquidity across the region.
Although the US trade deficit with the EU shrank slightly, deficits with major Asian partners like Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, India, Thailand and Vietnam expanded, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Meagan Martin-Schoenberger.
AI related issues have emerged as the number one challenge facing Australian business leaders for the year ahead and beyond, according to KPMG Australia’s annual 'Keeping us up at Night' survey.
KPMG’s labour market analysis highlights statistics in the sub-markets that contribute to Australia’s overall unemployment numbers.
This edition of Economic Compass explores how trust has eroded both domestically in the United States and globally, with economic anxieties increasing.
House prices across the country are expected to increase by 7.7 percent this year, with momentum in the property market expected to continue in 2026.
This submission includes KPMG’s responses to the Federal Government on the proposed Statement of Tax Record (STR) and Voluntary Tax Transparency Code (VTTC) requirements under the Community Benefit Principles.
The withdrawal of energy rebates, seasonality swings in holiday costs and wage growth powered by public sector demand weren’t strong enough to counter the rising concerns of the RBA, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The reasons for the pause in cuts are ample; data disruptions due to the government shutdown last year have left us with an unclear assessment of where inflation is, let alone where it is going, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
The inflation data shows an economy with prices accelerating well above what any central bank would be happy with, however, there remain good reasons for the RBA board to sit on their hands, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Domestically, Australia’s economy has shifted into a higher gear, albeit continuing to operate below historical growth trends.
The aggregate data masks underlying stress in low-and-middle-income households, with affluent consumers are driving spending gains, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Ben Shoesmith.
The Fed risks losing its inflation fighting credibility by focusing more on shoring up employment than stemming inflation, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Although the likelihood of a further rate cut has diminished, KPMG still believes that there may be an opportunity for the RBA to cut rates further in the first half of 2026, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The latest KPMG UK economic outlook examines the potential impact of US tariffs and the implications for the public finances.
KPMG China has released the Q4 edition of the 2025 China Economic Monitor which analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
The US labour market picked up slightly in September, after being revised weaker over the summer, but the gains were not enough to hold the unemployment rate in check, as outlined by KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
The narrowing of the US trade deficit was expected, given trade policy changes, and it supports the view that trade will be negligible for growth in the third quarter, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Meagan Schoenberger.
KPMG’s biannual Australian Inflation and Cost Dynamics report is designed to provide unique and timely insights into the complexities of inflation and its driving forces within the Australian economy.
The unemployment rate reinforces the view that there are still short-term inflationary pressures in the economy, writes KPMG Senior Economist Terry Rawnsley.
The United States’ economy is powering forward, aided by a boom in AI, or arms race, as many in Washington see it, without generating many jobs, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
High interest rates had previously succeeded in curbing demand, however the three interest rate cuts this year appear to have re-stimulated household demand, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
We currently expect the Fed to cut one more time in December due to labour market weakness, but the optics of a cut while inflation is still moving up are not pretty, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
We always knew there was going to be an uptick in inflation once electricity rebates were wound back, but unfortunately the spike is much higher than any of us anticipated, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The inflation data was slightly better than expected, which helps shore up the Fed’s near-term commitment to focus more on the labour market and cut rates in October and December.
If the US Fed doesn’t cut interest rates, it risks a recession, and if it cuts too aggressively, it could stoke a more persistent bout of stagflation, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
This webinar, held on 24 September, features KPMG's regional chief economists, global geopolitics lead and senior advisors to provide C-suite and board-level leaders with a view of the global landscape.
The US Government shutdown alone could shave 0.2 percent from real GDP growth per week and efforts by the Administration to freeze spending could up those costs, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
This report looks at the potential impact of increasing global trade frictions, potential tax rises, inflation and interest rates and the implications for UK fiscal and monetary policy.
KPMG's Global CEO Outlook finds Australian CEOs outpace global peers in economic optimism as work-from-home outlook u-turns.
Labour demand and labour supply are both declining at the same time in the US, with firms cautious about hiring, as discussed by KPMG US Senior Economist Matthew Nestler.
While the recent acceleration in economic activity is encouraging, it is too early to celebrate; growth remains below trend, and the recovery is still uneven.
Everything from shifts in trade and industrial policy to aging demographics are eroding and even severing global supply chains, writes KPMG US Economist Benjamin Shoesmith.
Consumer spending enthusiasm in the US continues to surprise amid ongoing trade concerns and the softening labour market, writes KPMG Senior Economist Benjamin Shoesmith.
The labour market should remain strong, maintaining a relatively balanced position to the end of the year and continuing to operate around full employment, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The Fed is now a little more worried about growth than inflation, but most participants at the meeting were not looking to make aggressive cuts, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
With the risk of retaliatory tariffs receding, we expect on balance the net impact of increased trade frictions to be disinflationary, writes KPMG UK Chief Economist Yael Selfin.
This report by KPMG US Senior Economist Meagan Schoenberger, outlines five trends reshaping the outlook and what those trends mean for businesses trying to navigate uncertainty.
The slowdown in global growth can be primarily attributed to North America, with the US forecast to suffer a mild bout of stagflation, meaning rising prices and unemployment, due to shifts in trade policy.
The weakness we are seeing is chilling and enables the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September, although not enough for the most dovish Fed governors, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Merriden Varrall and Jon Berry outline how global populism is reshaping trade and highlight strategies for Australian businesses to stay resilient amid change.
KPMG's forecast of the national dwelling market highlights the complexity of current market dynamics across different cities and property types.
A key influence in this spike was the fact that households in NSW and the ACT had higher out-of-pocket costs for electricity in July, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
This edition of Economic Compass takes a closer look at where the United States is in the rollout of tariffs, how long before the full effects kick in and how other policy shifts are likely to interact with tariffs.
KPMG China has released the Q3 edition of the 2025 China Economic Monitor which analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
The possibility of a September rate cut is high but not a slam-dunk, as US Fed officials have tempered calls for an outsized cut in September, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Ken Kim.
The pass-through to consumer prices of the most recent rise in tariffs is expected to be faster than the initial round because there was less time to stockpile, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
It appears the RBA Board has received the message that the economy needs more than ‘hopes and prayers’, but rather, active policy decisions to ratchet down the cash rate over the coming months to shore up employment, investment and spending, writes Brendan Rynne.
This KPMG International webinar, held on 7 August, explores the implications of recent trade policy changes and the concerns that businesses may have in the new trade environment.
Despite a lift in household savings in the first quarter of the year, families have sought to tighten their belts further to ensure they’re getting the biggest bang for their buck, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Since the RBA’s last board meeting, it seems the arguments for lowering the cash rate have now materialised more than the arguments for maintaining it, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
One should expect dissent as the Fed gets closer to deciding when to cut rates, given the wide band of uncertainty over how tariffs play out, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
It will not take much for consumers to recalibrate their spending as we expect to see larger price increases for retail goods in July and August, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Ken Kim.
The data will reinforce the weakness that is continuing within the private side of the Australian economy, writes KPMG’s Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The consistent rise in new homes being commenced indicates that the pipeline of new housing projects is strengthening, as highlighted by KPMG Economist Terry Rawnsley.
The front-running of tariffs earlier this year helped blunt but not derail the bump in inflation due to tariffs in June, as discussed by KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and the inflationary implications of means that the easing of monetary policy is likely to err on the cautious side, writes KPMG Senior Economist Michael Malakellis.
The month of May chalked up the largest increase since July 2014 and handily beat the consensus expectation for an 8.5 percent rise, as outlined by KPMG US Senior Economist Ken Kim.
Retail stores are beginning to bounce back, with both clothing, footwear, personal accessory and department stores enjoying gains, writes KPMG Economist Terry Rawnsley.
The US data is disappointing on multiple fronts, suggesting the consumer is feeling stressed amidst weaker incomes and accelerating inflation, as highlighted by KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
KPMG’s biannual Australian Inflation and Cost Dynamics report is designed to provide unique and timely insights into the complexities of inflation and its driving forces within the Australian economy.
The results show a continued pattern of deflation across the Australian economy, both at a headline and from a core inflation perspective, as detailed by KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The June labour force data should be telling the RBA to get ahead of the curve and drop the cash rate by 25 basis points (bp) at the next meeting, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
There is a very strong argument that absent the tariff-induced inflation, the Fed would be cutting rates now, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
This edition of Economic Compass takes a closer look at where the US Administration is in enacting its policy agenda.
Europe faces a modest growth outlook in the short term, as uncertainty weighs on business investment and consumer confidence.
The need for less constrictive monetary policy is increasing, which places more pressure on the RBA to balance the risks of inflation returning under lower interest rates against a slowing economy, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
KPMG China has released the Q2 edition of the 2025 China Economic Monitor which analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
The slowing retail figures and the flat private sector investment capex figures show the economy is still fairly fragile, which justifies the RBA’s recent rate cut, writes KPMG Australia Economist Terry Rawnsley.
Although the data suggests that inflation remains persistent, it also confirms that the RBA now has more headroom to act quickly in reducing rates if negative shocks threaten the growth outlook, writes KPMG Senior Economist Michael Malakellis.
Heightened uncertainty, combined with higher inflation, economic stagnation and rising federal deficits could mean tighter lending conditions for both businesses and households, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Ken Kim.
This KPMG report provides superannuation market analysis using 2024 APRA data including fees, industry flows and expenditure, in addition to Chant West investment performance figures.
The 2025 budget introduces various tax proposals, including a new 20 percent ‘investment boost’ tax deduction for business assets, and changes to KiwiSaver settings.
We are unlikely to see consecutive drops in the cash rate, due to a mixture of global economic uncertainty and local concerns surrounding the re-emergence of inflation pressures, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
This edition of Economic Compass, from KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk, provides an in-depth look at KPMG’s baseline forecast, which includes a shallow US recession.
Unemployment is expected to rise gradually, inflation is firmly in target and lower global economic growth is forecast – all factors allowing the RBA to signal a lower cash rate profile back to neutral, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The US Fed sees risks on inflation and unemployment both to the upside, which could cause it to prioritise one side of its mandates over the other, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Dianne Swonk.
The data confirms that the right approach for RBA is to ease off the interest rate brake, to help stimulate a soft economy, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The Labor Party made some tax-related election commitments which we expect the Federal Government will start to implement in 2025, as outlined by Alia Lum and Amanda Maguire.
The rise in spending to hedge against a surge in tariffs masks an underlying weakness, notably in business investment, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Collectively, the data indicates that a cut to the cash rate is now warranted, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
US trade with China has hit a wall with the imposition of prohibitively high tariffs, which is taking a toll on shipping and related jobs, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
This edition of Economic Compass, from KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk takes a closer look at the fallout from the most recent round of tariffs.
Sharp declines in the stock market may start hurting the positive wealth effects from the stock market boom over the past few years, which boosted consumption at the high end, as outlined by KPMG US Senior Economist Matthew Nestler.
The uncertainty over an escalating trade war, and other economic indicators and prevailing risk factors led the RBA to leave interest rates on hold.
The trimmed mean CPI remains stubbornly towards the upper end of the RBA’s target range and a range of risk factors continue to lurk, writes Brendan Rynne.
The Fed is in full wait-and-see mode and in no hurry to cut rates, something that financial markets have not fully absorbed, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
KPMG analysis shows a rebound in the number of part-time workers, as Australians look to balance their professional and personal lives.
KPMG China has released the Q1 edition of the 2025 China Economic Monitor which analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
This edition of Economic Compass, from KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk, takes a closer look at the economic consequences a surge in economic policy uncertainty can have amidst an erosion in trust.
What is unknown is how much of the rise in tariffs will boost prices as we move through the year and how durable those price hikes could be, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
The jobs data comes from January 2025, before the effects of the Administration's new policies on layoffs, tariffs and immigration have fed through the economy. A sharp downturn cannot be ruled out, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Matthew Nestler.
The improvement in private sector growth is a positive sign, but a sustained upswing is heavily dependent on productivity growth, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The US Fed needs to be confident that inflation will continue to cool and stay low to cut interest rates again, however tariffs and the threat of retaliation by some of our closest trading partners make that less likely, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
The figures again show the RBA’s decision to cut rates in February would have been a line-ball call, despite the slowing economy benefiting from some easing of monetary policy, as outlined by KPMG Australia’s Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The strength of the labour market has been somewhat surprising given the weakness in the economy, particularly the private sector, writes KPMG Economist Michael Malakellis.
The decline in growth reflects the slowing economy, although with CPI down to 2.4 percent, the figures at least represent modest real wage growth, writes Terry Rawnsley.
Inflation is trending down, but it is extremely difficult to get a good read on where inflation is tracking now and whether it will be sustainably inside the RBA’s target range, writes Michael Malakellis.
The weak January report suggests that the health of consumer spending, which carried the US economy to robust growth last year, will bear close watching in the months ahead, writes KPMG Senior Advisor Chris Varvares.
In this series of four articles, the Australia Geopolitics Hub analyses how President Trump’s policies could reshape the geopolitical map and ask what that means for Australia and Australian businesses.
After a significant decline in US inflation from the 9.1 percent peak in mid-2022 to roughly 2.5 percent in the late summer of last year, inflation has been in a holding pattern, even edging higher.
KPMG’s labour market analysis highlights statistics in the sub-markets that contribute to Australia’s overall unemployment numbers.
Brace yourself. We are not done with tariffs; the next round could be significantly higher, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
This report includes KPMG’s forecast of the national dwelling market, highlighting the complexity of current market dynamics across different cities and property types.
Australia's economy is experiencing slow growth, impacted by cost-of-living packages and CPI adjustments, presenting challenges for policymakers.
The United States has the possibility of rate cuts being front-loaded due to the length of time it takes for tariffs, tax cuts and curbs to immigration to work their way through the economy, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Clothing stores benefited from increased demand in the United States, but many restaurants failed to see their usual holiday surge, despite record holiday travel, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
At a headline level, the data suggests the labour market is continuing to defy the weakness we are observing in the private sector of the economy, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Over the longer term, to keep control of our public finances, hard decisions will need to be made about cutting spending and/or increasing revenues, writes KPMG Australia’s Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Importantly, in seasonally adjusted terms, all this employment growth was driven by full-time jobs; this has been fuelled by elevated levels of public spending, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
In this series of four articles, the Australia Geopolitics Hub will analyse how President-elect Trump’s policy pronouncements could reshape the geopolitical map, and ask, what does that mean for Australia and Australian businesses?
While demand-driven factors are now contributing less to inflation than at any time in the post-COVID-19 period, and are in fact back in line with ‘normal settings’, the supply side of the economy is still problematic, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
Regardless of whether Australia’s recent aggregate economic performance meets the requirements of being classified as a technical recession, households, businesses and investors know the economy is underperforming, writes KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The AASB proposes removing the ability for certain NFP entities from preparing special purpose financial statements and a new General Purpose Financial Statement Tier-3 for smaller NFP private sector entities.
Consumers in the United States have pushed back on price hikes and are spending when they spot discounts, as detailed by KPMG US Senior Economist Meagan Schoenberger.
The next quarterly CPI data will not be released until late January 2025 – in time for the February 2025 RBA board meeting – and much hinges on how those numbers land, writes Brendan Rynne.
KPMG China has released the Q4 edition of the 2024 China Economic Monitor which analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
There is a push to get tax cuts expanded in the first 100 days of the incoming administration, however our legislative liaisons believe it will be 2026 before any major tax cuts are implemented, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
KPMG remains of the view that with the decline in inflation accelerating, and the expectation still that Australia’s labour market will weaken in the near term, the RBA will start to cut the cash rate from early next year.
We still expect the Fed to cut rates again in December and then move to every other meeting in 2025, writes KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
KPMG does not discount the possibility of inflation persisting above target for longer, but this is not our central view, writes Brendan Rynne.
Preliminary modelling by KPMG, including the retail sales volumes data released in October, suggests household consumption for 2024Q3 will show another quarter of negative growth, as detailed by Brendan Rynne.
We believe the RBA will still want to see core inflation well below the top of the target band before it moves on reducing the cash rate, writes Brendan Rynne.
Real-time data from the United States reveals show that job postings have been flat since May but have hit a slight downward trend in October, as outlined by KPMG US Senior Economist Matthew Nestler.
Housing construction bottlenecks have seen 34,325 dwellings in Australia remain 'approved but not yet commenced' as of 30 June 2024, as outlined by Terry Rawnsley.
KPMG's submission to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources on the introduction of mandatory guardrails for AI in high-risk settings.
Despite the relative weakness in the private sector labour data, we remain of the view that the RBA will maintain the current contractionary levels of cash rate at 4.35 percent until early 2025, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
This edition of Economic Compass provides a closer look at KPMG US’ baseline forecast for the country’s economy prior to the hurricanes.
Continued discounting, lower inflation and savings rates suggest that spending for the US consumer still has room to grow, writes KPMG US Senior Economist Matthew Nestler.
KPMG’s survey reveals most CEOs are showing resilience in a sluggish economy and looking past the next six months to a brighter two to three years after that.
The global economy has reached an inflection point with monetary policy now facing an easing pathway in the near term, although the extent and length of this easing remains unclear.
Consumer spending has picked up on the heels of discounting, which is the very definition of a soft landing, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
We feel that the RBA is now in a position to re-think the warning it has given in its last two statements of the “need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out”, writes KPMG Senior Economist Michael Malakellis.
Our central view continues to be that the RBA will not need to raise rates further, but that rates cuts will be unlikely before next year, writes KPMG Australia Senior Economist Michael Malakellis.
In the next KPMG’s Private Insights Webinar Series, to be held on Thursday 26 September, Gayle Dickerson and James Stewart discuss the current key retail megatrends, what is making local trading conditions so difficult and how businesses can respond.
As the labour market tends to lag economic growth, we continue to maintain our expectation that the labour market will soften over the rest of the year, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
The US Federal Open Market Committee has started the rate-cutting cycle with an outsized move, with analysis from KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Another rate cut this year is likely as the European Central Bank attempts to stimulate an economy marked by not just restrictive lending conditions but also other major challenges, writes KPMG Senior Economist Benjamin Shoesmith.
Payroll gains are slowing in the US, while the ranks of those forced to accept part-time for economic reasons are rising, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
Productivity – the real key to growth – is also falling and this declining productivity represents businesses holding onto labour while not selling enough to justify their roles, writes Brendan Rynne.
Monthly inflation data is always ‘noisy’ and July’s has been particularly impacted by the energy subsidies, writes Michael Malakellis.
The report analyses the latest trends in the macro economy and policy developments.
US retail sales surged in July despite a lowered forecast in June as consumers spent where the price cuts were greatest.
The strong employment performance was due to a rise in the participation rate by 0.2 percent to a new record level of 67.1 percent – with more than half of the increase in full-time employment this month being for female workers, writes Brendan Rynne.
While wages growth in the private sector softened this quarter, the real story is the public sector, where wages rose slightly and now contribute 25 percent of overall wage growth this quarter, writes KPMG Australia Chief Economist Brendan Rynne.
This edition of KPMG US’ Economic Compass takes a closer look at the resurgence of recession fears, how far the Fed has come in its battle against inflation and what those shifts suggest about the trajectory of rate cuts.
Both credit access and utilisation have been fairly low by historical standards due to higher rates, as outlined by KPMG US Senior Economist Meagan Schoenberger.
The RBA has revised its inflation outlook to reflect a more persistent path compared to three months ago, citing factors such as resilient domestic demand and geopolitical uncertainties, as detailed by KPMG Australia Senior Economist Michael Malakellis.
There is no way to make the United States’ July employment report look good, and we now expect double the number of rate cuts compared to just a month ago, writes KPMG US Chief Economist Diane Swonk.
